Bitcoin is showing signs of a seasonal pullback entering September, even as early strength suggests its monthly peak may already be behind us.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin historically records average September losses of -3.5% to -3.8%, with 8 of the last 12 Septembers closing red.
- BTC bounced ~2–2.5% intraday to ~$110,500, but analysts warn it may be a brief reprieve.
- Breached supports at $109K–$111K, 50/100-day SMAs, and Ichimoku cloud raise risk of testing $100K–$101K.
On-chain reports highlighted that Bitcoin often sets its monthly high or low within the first 12 days over 80% of the time, making the early September move suggestive of a peak already occurring. In a X (formerly Twitter) post by trader/investor Daan Crypto Trades, he highlighted that waiting out the first few days is a “good strategy” in trading during this month with choppy and unpredictable price actions.
“This is why I'm patiently waiting for the first week to play out and see if any nice opportunities present themselves. Seasonality for September isn't the best, but October and November are generally very good.”
Meanwhile, CoinGlass data reveals Bitcoin’s decline in 8 of the past 12 Septembers, averaging returns around -3.49% to -3.8%. In addition, Bitcoin closing in red starting since 2013, establishing the tendency well for a September dump.
Photo: CoinGlass’ Bitcoin monthly returns.
Analysts Warn of Critical Support Levels at Risk
As of the writing time (8:00 UTC), Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $110,252 after bouncing from an intraday low near $107,500 in today’s early session. This represents roughly 0.6% gain over the past 24 hours, confirming a short-term rebound but still leaving BTC about 11% below its all-time high.
Meanwhile, technical indicators support caution, as on-chain reports from CoinDesk reveal that the MACD histogram has turned negative, and the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) confirmed bearish momentum. The cryptocurrency has broken below key support areas including the Ichimoku cloud, 50- and 100-day SMAs, as well as horizontal levels around $109,364 and $111,965. If these support levels are breached, the next stop could be the 200-day SMA near $101,366, with a deeper test of $100K possible.
Even so, analysts, including from Cointelegraph and Binance’s official commentary, suggest that the $105K to $110K zone has now flipped to support after being a resistance from the recent legs. This is a bullish base reminiscent of 2017, which preceded a sharp rally. Hidden bullish divergence in RSI also hints at underlying strength.
Real-Time Market Snapshot Shows Fragile Recovery
Despite today’s bounce, sentiment remains fragile across the crypto market. The broader landscape reflects risk aversion among traders who are cautious about September’s historical trends. Many crypto investment strategies now emphasize holding positions cautiously or rebalancing crypto portfolios to reduce downside risk during this period.
Septembear Outlook
September has long been Bitcoin’s time of the year with most reds, suggesting this is historically the weakest month, and early technical breaks reinforce fears of a “Septembear” correction. However, the early bounce to $110K area suggests that the monthly high may already be in, or in forming. If BTC manages to hold above the $105k-$110K support levels, a rebound is possible. But cutting below it may trigger a test of $100K and the 200-day average. Investors would do well to monitor these critical levels in the coming days, as the seasonal narrative meets real-time price action.
Summary
Bitcoin trades ~$110K after rebounding from $107.5K, but September’s weak track record looms: BTC closed red in 8/12 Septembers (avg −3.5% to −3.8%). Analysts highlight broken supports ($109K–$111K, SMAs, Ichimoku) and warn of risks toward $100K–$101K.
Still, $105K–$110K may act as a bullish base if defended, recalling 2017. Traders should watch seasonal flows, Fed tone, and whale activity to gauge whether this “Septembear” dip becomes deeper correction or sets a rebound.
